Ascension shards jumped after their buy limit rose, but most Fractured Archive uniques kept falling in week two. Elsewhere, megarares were mostly flat and breadth points to a mild drawdown, not a crash. This uses Sunday spot ranges and 6h average mids from OSRS Wiki prices.
Not financial advice. Not affiliated with Jagex.
Week in flows
Shards spiked, then gave some back
Ascension shards started the week at a 674 GP 6h mid, touched 531 GP on Tuesday, then printed 2,286 GP Wednesday after the limit rose to 30,000. Sunday spot is 1,500–1,519 GP, up 123.8% on the week but 21.3% below the 24h average. Volume reached 3,887,956 in the last 24 hours, against 677,834 last Sunday. Ascension bolts went the other way, down 20.4% to 167–168 GP. The limit change lines up with the spike; the late-week pullback is also clear.
Chart: Ascension shards, Sunday spot 1,500–1,519 GP.
Ascension shards finished at 1,500–1,519 GP, up 123.8% on the week.
Most TFA uniques kept bleeding
The Fractured Archive Uniques basket sits near 3.624B GP, down about 12.6% from last Sunday. Rondache fell 53.4% to 15.73M–16.20M GP, and its 15.47M Sunday 6h mid was a week low. Ascension crossbows lost 24.4%; Zorya’s tome lost 35.4%; Horn of Bran lost 21.7%. All four were at or near their 6h week lows Sunday and 21–25% below their 24h averages.
Chart: Rondache, Sunday spot 15.73M–16.20M GP.
Obligator was the exception. It rose 12.1% from a 2.559B GP Monday mid and traded at 2.847B–2.890B GP Sunday, after a 3.167B Friday 6h high. Jagex cut group unique chances after team deaths, which should support the uniques. So far, only Obligator has held up.
Chart: Obligator (uncharged), Sunday spot 2.847B–2.890B GP.
The Fractured Archive Uniques index is near 3.624B GP, down about 12.6% on the week.
Megarares were quiet; a few niches firmed
Twisted bow slipped 0.3% to 1.417B–1.424B GP. Scythe of Vitur eased 2.3% to 1.068B–1.070B GP, while Tumeken’s shadow gained 4.7% to 690.94M–697.90M GP. Tonalztics rose 18.7% to 183.20M–185.36M GP, 0.1% above its 24h average. Inquisitor’s armour gained 9.2% to 438.58M–442.00M GP as the mace fell 3.9% to 188.50M–190.09M GP. The week favored a few specific slots, not a broad megarares move.
Chart: Tonalztics of Ralos (uncharged), Sunday spot 183.20M–185.36M GP.
Tonalztics of Ralos (uncharged) is 183.20M–185.36M GP, up 18.7% on the week.
Breadth says drawdown, not crash
Among 336 items above 1M GP with at least 10 trades, 108 rose and 228 fell. The median was down 3.0%; the mean was down 1.7%. The median for items above 100M GP was down 4.3%. That is a mild broad drawdown. The bond fell 4.6% to 9.35M–9.75M GP; Saradomin brew(4) fell 7.3%. The tape does not support a market-crash call.
Old school bond is 9.35M–9.75M GP, down 4.6% on the week.
Bets & consensus
Crowd coverage was thin this week: Reddit was blocked to our listener all week.
| Call | Read | Sunday tape |
|---|---|---|
| “Market crashing” after a GE change | Wrong on the tape | 108 of 336 items above 1M GP rose and 228 fell; median move was −3.0%, mean −1.7%. Mild drawdown, not a crash. |
| Deep Sea Diving gem read | Narrative-only / early | Uncut red topaz is down 26.9% to 671–747 GP; the proposal is not live. The tape does not show a cause. |
Chart: Uncut red topaz, Sunday spot 671–747 GP.
Official / patch risk
Jagex’s Oct 28 update raised the Ascension shards buy limit from 100 to 30,000. It also capped offensive stat reduction at 50% on Ocellus, Xarth, and Dreadnoth. Jagex aimed that cap at Emberlight spec spam; Emberlight has no GE quote. Team deaths now reduce group unique chances because Jagex said the rates had been slightly higher than intended. The tape’s response is split: shards are up 123.8% on the week, while the Fractured Archive index is down about 12.6%.
The Deep Sea Diving expansion is a poll proposal, not live. It would add gem rocks for sapphires through diamonds at 65 Mining and opals, jades, and red topazes at 75 Mining, plus faster gold and silver rocks and a jewellery furnace that banks finished jewellery. Red topaz is down 26.9% on the week, but that is only a narrative read. The proposal is not a proven cause.
Hardcore Worlds start Nov 4 with a separate economy and a choice to reset or transfer on death. Any main-GE effect should be a trickle, not a shock. Quest Month also starts Nov 4. The Jagex Account migration starts Nov 17. Ascension shards are 1,500–1,519 GP Sunday, after a 2,286 GP Wednesday 6h high.
Watchlist for next week
- Ascension shards: watch whether volume holds after the limit change; supply could reprice the shard. Invalidation: below the 531 GP Tuesday 6h low.
- Fractured Archive Uniques index: watch whether the second-week bleed continues or Obligator’s bid spreads. Invalidation: Rondache below its 15.47M GP Sunday 6h low.
- Tonalztics of Ralos (uncharged): watch whether it holds near its 183.20M–185.36M GP Sunday spot; it could reprice if the week’s firming continues. Invalidation: below the 155.21M GP Monday 6h mid.
Track the tape with the QuantScapers plugin, browse the market, or scan the heatmap.